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Overshot, Shot-over…

“To effectively prevent all tipping risks, the global mean temperature increase would need to be limited to no more than one degree – we are currently already at about 1.2 degrees,“ Jonathan Donges, Co-Lead of the FutureLab on Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene at PIK adds. “The latest IPCC report is showing that we’re most likely on a path to temporarily overshoot the 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature threshold.”

Emergence of at least one tipping event increases with rising peak temperatures

“We found that the risk for the emergence of at least one tipping event increases with rising peak temperatures – already at a peak temperature of three degrees Celsius, more than one third of all simulations showed a tipping event even when overshoot durations were limited strongly. At four degrees Celsius peak temperature, this risk extends to more than half of all simulations,” explains Nico Wunderling.


Full article here: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01545-9

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